Britain could be hit by power cuts next winter because the
electricity supply is already ‘close to its limits’, experts warn.
Capacity is so stretched that a cold spell, combined with
routine problems at one or more plants, could overwhelm the system and see
blackouts in 2014-15, their damning report claims.
A major pressure on the National Grid is the forced closure
of coal-fired power stations to meet European green directives, the Royal
Academy of Engineering says.
But the drive to low-carbon power from wind farms and new nuclear power
stations ‘will come at a cost’ and the authors call for politicians to be
honest with the public about it.
* Royal Academy of Engineering warns of risk as old plants
begin to close
* Electrical system could be under the most pressure next
winter
* National Grid last week warned of Britain's risk of
blackouts this winter
* Latest report suggests system should cover demand but will
be stretched
* Power supply could be put at risk by low wind or even cold
weather
Ed Miliband has promised to freeze energy prices for 20
months if Labour wins the 2015 General Election but the report, commissioned by
the Prime Minister’s Council for Science and Technology, says the major power
firms already lack the certainty about prices to invest in desperately-needed
new capacity, and will find it difficult to secure supply in future while
trying to keep bills low.
Two of the Big Six energy firms have already announced
inflation-busting price increases this winter, with British Gas’s 9.2 per cent
rise yesterday following SSE’s 8 per cent rise last week.
For the report, engineers looked at capacity in the power
network this year, in 2015 and in 2019, and how the system would cope during a
peak in demand such as that seen during the freezing winter of two years ago.
They concluded that a combination of adverse conditions is
‘likely to stretch the system close to its limits, notably during the winter of
2014-15, increasing the chance of power outages’.
Dr John Roberts, chairman of the working group, said these
were ‘real sets of challenging conditions that have happened before and can be
expected again in the future’.
* Candle power: Blackouts and power cuts were a familiar
feature during the 1970s
* Ed Miliband has promised to freeze energy prices for 20 months if Labour wins
the 2015 General Election
Possible closures: Dr John Roberts, chairman of the
reports's working group, said several coal and oil-fired power stations could
be closed in the next decade if there is no investment
* At risk: Leading engineers have warned the country is at a high risk of
blackouts over the next five years as the ageing electrical system comes under
pressure
However, coal and gas-fired power stations are being forced
to close as they do not meet EU regulations on pollution, while four nuclear
plants are scheduled to be phased out by 2019.
Dr Roberts said this ‘would reduce the flexibility of the
system and increase the chances that otherwise manageable failures could
jeopardise the country’s power supply’.
But Business Minister Michael Fallon insisted: ‘The lights
are not going to go out. There will be a tightness in supply if nothing is done
but stuff is being done.
‘We’ve opened six new gas plants already. Another is being
built. You’re going to hear very soon about our investment in new nuclear power
stations.’
The RAE experts interviewed staff at the National Grid, the
regulator Ofgem, the Government and the big power firms.
They call on ministers to build more gas plants in the
coming years, but say they must urge operators not to close them before 2015,
and pay them to generate more capacity.
Ageing gas plants are being closed or mothballed because the
high price of gas make them unprofitable.
And while coal prices have plummeted, undercut as a result
of the shale gas boom in the US, around a dozen coal plants will close by 2015
because of green directives.
Dame Sue Ion, fellow of the RAE, who worked on the report,
said: ‘We’re saying that when everything is going well there is enough capacity
in the system, but if there is a bit of a problem such as one or two major
stations going down for whatever reason and an anticyclone comes from over the
Atlantic, then at peak, demand will potentially exceed supply.
‘We have quite a lot of renewable energy being installed but
it is intermittent, so unless you have gas to back it up it’s a problem.
Whether the turbines are onshore or offshore, if it’s a cold
winter that is not windy then only a very small amount of energy will be
generated.’
Major investment is needed in the electricity network, she
said, but the new wave of nuclear power stations announced today will not come
online until at least 2020 – leaving a looming gap.
‘In the long term we will need a lot more power’, she said.
‘The important thing is before any statements are made about fixing prices
there have to be decisions made about how much investment is needed and how the
costs of that investment – which do not come from taxation, they come out of
electricity bills – will be paid for.’
Most of the network was built in the 1960s. Since then the
population has risen by more than 10million – and the use of electricity in
transport systems and to heat homes has soared.
Dr Roberts said: ‘Major investment is needed in the UK’s
electricity system to achieve a modern, sustainable and secure service that
will be the foundation of economic growth.
‘Government will set the market conditions but it is private
industry that will invest the necessary money.
Most of the energy companies operating in this country are
international organisations that will invest in the UK only if it proves to be
an attractive market.
‘Modernising and decarbonising the system will come at a
cost, with likely rises in the unit price of electricity and difficult
decisions will need to be made.
It is vital that government and industry work together to
foster a constructive dialogue with the public about the challenges we face.’
And now China's allowed to control our nuclear plants
China will be allowed to own and operate a new generation of
nuclear power stations in Britain despite warnings the move is a ‘serious
error’ that could undermine national security.
Chancellor George Osborne said yesterday he was happy for
nuclear firms owned by the Chinese state to take a ‘majority stake’ in British
power plants.
Billions of pounds of investment is likely to follow,
with Chinese firms expected to take a major stake in the £14billion Hinkley C
reactor planned for construction in Somerset.
* George Osborne has signed a deal with China which opens the
doors for investors to take control of British nuclear power plants
* Britain aims to renew ageing nuclear power plants but needs foreign investment
to pay the huge upfront cost
But some experts have warned against giving China a
controlling stake in the critical industry on national security grounds,
arguing that it would leave Britain at the mercy of the Communist regime.
There are also concerns that the move could give China
access to details about pressure points in Britain’s energy supplies and other
sensitive information.
Mark Pritchard, a Tory member of Parliament’s national
security strategy committee, said: ‘Investment is needed, but not at any cost,
particularly when there are national security implications.
‘I don’t have a big problem with Chinese involvement in
designing and building nuclear power stations but they should not be allowed to
operate them.
‘It would be a serious error to let them have operational
control of our electricity supply.’ The Chancellor has also faced
criticism from human rights groups after failing to raise China’s appalling
human rights record with officials during a week-long visit.
China’s state-controlled People’s Daily yesterday said a
British admission that it had ‘mishandled’ the issue of Tibet had paved the way
for a week that has seen Mr Osborne announce a string of Chinese investments in
the UK.
The claim was dismissed by Downing Street, which said
Britain’s approach to Tibet and its spiritual leader the Dalai Lama had ‘not
changed’.
Mr Osborne defended the planned investment by China, saying:
‘There are many countries in the world who wouldn’t want other countries
involved in their civil nuclear programme – I do, because by the way, if it
wasn’t Chinese investment or French investment, it would have to be British
taxpayers, and I’d rather British taxpayers were spending their money on our
schools and hospitals and those things, and let’s get the rest of the world
investing in our energy.’
Officials insist the national security implications of
extending China’s reach in the UK have been fully considered.
French energy firm EDF has been negotiating with three
Chinese nuclear giants on the Hinkley C project.
Initially Chinese companies
are likely to hold a minority stake in any project, but this could rise over
time to a majority.
CHINESE TRANSPARENCY FEARS
Chinese companies have been criticised for their lack of
transparency in a survey released by an anti-corruption watchdog.
China got the lowest rating of the five major emerging
economies, behind India, South Africa, Russia and Brazil.
‘Companies from China lag behind in every dimension with an
overall score of 20 per cent,’ Berlin-based Transparency International says.
‘Given their growing influence in world markets, this is of
concern.’ Firms were marked on how transparently they present anti-corruption
measures and disclose data.
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